President's Commentary

It has been a very challenging period to start 2026 by any measure: domestic political partial budget shutdowns, Supreme Court decisions striking down the administration's signature tariff policy and two military moves in Venezuela and the Persian Gulf. The scorecard on the first in Venezuela is a clear long-term improvement for that country's citizens, the region, and the United States. The jury is still out on Iran but there is no doubt that nation has suffered a significant loss in power and prestige—likely to make it more dangerous in the short-term. The U.S. economy has been amazingly resilient in light of all this and markets have bent but not broken.

The U.S. has a fragile, two-week ceasefire with Iran, but my crystal ball says that a growing coalition will ultimately open the Straits of Hormuz by force. We won't have a repeat of the 1980's "tanker wars" and small boat attacks will decrease in number (and effectiveness) over the month of April. This remains likely the last (and best) opportunity for the Iranian people to retake control of their destiny—so watch for any units of the IRGC to desert as the air war continues unabated.

Finally, don't ignore what is happening 90 miles off the coast of Florida—by Thanksgiving, the Cuban government will be overthrown.